Overview
TFM X All Weather Momentum Investing is a systematic momentum investing strategy built around tactical asset allocation across equities, commodities, and defensive assets.
The framework follows a simple objective:
participate in strong market trends while improving resilience across changing macro environments.
Unlike traditional equity-only momentum models, TFM X uses a cross-asset momentum strategy designed to adapt across multiple market regimes.
The framework combines:
market regime analysis
relative strength (momentum)
cross-asset allocation
risk control
The objective is not prediction, but systematic adaptation through a repeatable ETF rotation strategy.
Core Allocation: QQQ, SPY, DBC or Cash
At its core, the strategy rotates between:
- QQQ (growth / technology exposure)
- SPY (broad U.S. equity exposure)
- DBC (commodities exposure)
- Cash (defensive allocation)
This tactical asset allocation framework creates a more adaptive all weather portfolio capable of responding to changing economic and market conditions.
Why These ETFs
QQQ
QQQ provides exposure to high-growth technology and innovation-driven companies.
It tends to outperform during strong risk-on and growth-oriented market regimes.
SPY
SPY offers diversified exposure to the broad U.S. equity market.
It generally provides more stability during mixed or slower growth environments.
DBC
DBC introduces diversified commodities exposure across:
energy
metals
agriculture
This allocation plays an important role inside the all weather momentum investing framework:
inflation-sensitive exposure
diversification away from equities
potential resilience during macro stress or stagflationary periods
Historically, commodities often behave differently from equities during inflationary or supply-driven market environments.
Alternative Commodity ETF
For investors seeking a potentially more tax-efficient structure, DBC may also be replaced with PDBC, which provides similar broad commodity exposure without issuing a K-1 tax form.
Cash
Cash serves as the defensive component when conditions deteriorate across risk assets.
Its role is capital preservation rather than return maximization.
Why Add DBC
The original TFM framework was primarily equity-driven.
TFM X expands the opportunity set by allowing the strategy to participate in commodity and macro-driven trends when traditional stock market conditions weaken.
The addition of DBC aims to improve:
regime diversification
drawdown management
portfolio robustness
inflation resilience
adaptability across multiple market cycles
The objective is not simply to increase returns, but to create a more resilient systematic momentum investing framework across a wider range of environments.
Advanced Version: TFM X++ (TQQQ / UPRO / DBC / Cash)
TFM X++ is the aggressive variation of the framework.
It replaces standard equity ETFs with leveraged equivalents:
- TQQQ (leveraged Nasdaq exposure)
- UPRO (leveraged S&P 500 exposure)
- DBC
- Cash
The structure remains identical, but with amplified exposure during strong momentum regimes.
Important Considerations
TFM X++ is designed for experienced investors only.
Leveraged ETFs introduce:
significantly higher volatility
faster portfolio swings
larger temporary drawdowns
greater behavioral pressure
The objective is not complexity, but increased participation during strong market trends while preserving the same systematic investing framework and defensive logic.
This approach requires strict discipline and a high tolerance for volatility.
The Three Filters
1. Market Regime (Macro Filter)
The first layer evaluates the broader market environment.
The objective is straightforward:
increase exposure during favorable conditions
reduce risk during deteriorating regimes
This filter helps avoid remaining fully invested during prolonged adverse environments.
2. Relative Strength (Momentum Filter)
The second layer determines which asset demonstrates the strongest momentum profile.
The strategy dynamically compares:
QQQ
SPY
DBC
Capital is allocated toward the strongest relative trend rather than maintaining a static allocation.
This systematic ETF rotation strategy allows the framework to adapt as leadership changes across asset classes.
3. Risk Control (Defensive Filter)
When trend and momentum conditions weaken, the strategy moves defensively.
This defensive process is essential because it aims to:
reduce drawdowns
limit volatility
preserve capital
maintain long-term compounding efficiency
Risk management is a core component of the TFM X all weather portfolio approach.
Cross-Asset Diversification
Traditional momentum investing strategies often rely exclusively on equities.
TFM X introduces a cross-asset momentum component designed to improve behavior during environments where stocks struggle but commodities strengthen.
This creates a more balanced all weather portfolio across:
growth regimes
inflationary regimes
risk-off periods
macro transitions
The objective is not diversification for its own sake, but diversification with tactical intent.
Cash Management
During defensive periods, idle cash may be allocated to short-duration Treasury ETFs such as SGOV.
This allows the portfolio to:
earn yield on defensive capital
maintain high liquidity
preserve capital with relatively low risk
The portfolio therefore remains defensive while still generating interest during risk-off environments.
Why Monthly Execution
TFM X operates using a monthly rebalancing process.
This structure is intentional.
Benefits include:
lower transaction costs
reduced market noise
simpler implementation
improved behavioral discipline
better robustness across long-term market cycles
High-frequency adjustments often increase emotional decision-making and overtrading.
A monthly momentum investing process provides a balance between responsiveness and stability.
Execution
Portfolio rebalancing occurs once per month at market close.
Implementation can be performed using standard ETF orders, including market-on-close (MOC) orders where available.
Philosophy
TFM X is built around several core principles:
simplicity over complexity
process over prediction
adaptation over forecasting
discipline over discretion
The strategy does not attempt to predict economic events or market narratives.
Instead, it systematically reacts to observable market behavior using a rules-based tactical asset allocation framework.
Limitations
No investment framework is perfect.
Performance will vary depending on market conditions.
Periods of underperformance should be expected.
Backtests are historical simulations and do not guarantee future results.
The strength of the framework lies in its consistency, repeatability, and risk management discipline over long periods.
Access to Allocation
The framework is public.
Execution is not.
Monthly allocations, ETF selections, and portfolio updates are shared through the newsletter.
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Backtest & Data
For transparency, full historical backtests and data are available below.
These results are historical simulations intended solely to illustrate the framework.
TFM X (QQQ / SPY / DBC / Cash)
TFM X++ (TQQQ / UPRO / DBC / Cash)
Disclaimer
This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
All investment decisions remain the sole responsibility of the reader.
About ANALYM LLC
ANALYM LLC is a private investment company dedicated exclusively to managing its own capital for proprietary purposes.
The company focuses on:
strategic investments
long-term capital allocation
public equity markets
portfolio optimization
ANALYM LLC does not provide financial services, investment advice, or third-party asset management services.
About TFM
TFM (Triple Filter Momentum) is developed and published independently as a systematic momentum investing framework combining:
trend analysis
confirmation filters
risk management
cross-asset momentum
tactical ETF rotation
The project is educational in nature and operates independently from ANALYM LLC.
You can explore the methodology and access the dedicated newsletter through TFM Momentum.
